Tories forge five-point poll lead over Labour

[dutchman]

The Conservatives have forged a five-point lead over Labour, according to the latest Guardian/ICM poll, suggesting that David Cameron would stand on the verge of an outright majority if an election were held today.



The Tories are on 40%, up three percentage points from December, while Labour has drifted down one to 35%. The Liberal Democrats are on 16%, up one.

The Tories' standing is their highest since before the general election in the Guardian/ICM series – they last stood at 40% in March 2010.

Their lead is the biggest since the eight-point edge they enjoyed in June 2010, a few weeks after Cameron moved into Downing Street.

The result will pile on the pressure for the Labour leader, Ed Miliband, who has endured a difficult few weeks dominated by Westminster whispering about his performance and rows with union leaders over his attempt to harden his party's line on the deficit.

The poll comes after a weekend which saw two surveys published by other pollsters, both of which also indicated that the Tories were making headway.

A YouGov poll for the Sunday Times recorded a five-point Conservative lead, whereas ComRes for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror now have the two main parties level-pegging, after the same company recorded a four-point Labour lead in December.

The detailed ICM data records the Conservatives pulling ahead on all sorts of fronts. Their appeal among men is especially wide, at 43% to Labour's 34%, but Cameron will be relieved that he now also enjoys a 40% to 38% edge among women, easing recent Tory anxieties about a gender gap.

The north-south divide is as pronounced as ever: the Tories lead by 12 points in the south, and Labour is five points up in the north. In the traditional electoral battleground of the Midlands, however, it is the Tories who are surging ahead – at 48%, they are nine points clear of Labour, which stands on 39%.