Johnson tightens rules on travel and mask-wearing over Omicron concerns

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We're not locking the country down, says Boris Johnson



Boris Johnson has insisted England is not being put into lockdown by stealth, despite accusations from some of his own MPs.

The prime minister said he was not telling the public to cancel events, but urging them to exercise "caution".

It comes as chief medical officer Chris Whitty suggested people "prioritise" activities in the run-up to Christmas.

Conservative MP Steve Brine accused the government of "putting hospitality into effective lockdown".

Mr Brine said Prof Whitty's comments meant businesses were facing "complete ruin" and more government support was needed.

Business group the CBI has urged ministers to provide more support for pubs, restaurants and other venues, who have seen a rise in booking cancellations amid the spread of the Omicron variant.

The PM's spokesman denied Number 10 was sending out mixed messages about socialising over Christmas, adding that both the prime minister and the chief medical officer "were making the point that given the current infection rate people should be cautious and think carefully before mixing with others".

Meanwhile, Labour said the government needed to provide clarity on how it wants people to behave in the coming weeks.

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I really wish Starmer would grow a pair and present a decent and credible opposition, rather than be Bozo's poodle.

I also wish that the press would start asking 'probing' questions at Bozo's facile conferences. Like many, I could have tied the blustering, lying, fool, in knots after his disgraceful performance at the last two presentations.

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Sajid Javid refuses to rule out new coronavirus restrictions before Christmas



Health Secretary Sajid Javid has refused to rule out implementing further restrictions before Christmas, saying "there are no guarantees in this pandemic".

Speaking on the The Andrew Marr Show on BBC One as the Omicron Covid variant rapidly spreads throughout the UK, he said "at this point we just have to keep everything under review".

It comes after scientific advisers to the government said hospital admissions with the Covid variant in the UK are “probably around one tenth of the true number” due to a lag in reporting.

The “situation update” from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) on Thursday was published on Saturday and said that it is “almost certain that there are now hundreds of thousands of new Omicron infections per day” in England.

Mr Javid described the advice from Sage on the possible impact of hospital admissions from Omicron as "sobering", adding the government takes "it very seriously".

He added: “We are assessing the situation, it’s very fast-moving. We’ve seen with Omicron there’s a lot that we still don’t know about Omicron.

“That’s the truth of the matter. The reality is there’s a lot of uncertainty.”

And he said it was “time to be more cautious”.

“We know this thing is spreading rapidly. We know already now that in London, it’s around 80% of infections, in England it’s around 60% of infections,” he added.

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Not everyone happy, apparently?

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As usual, he's on the money.

BTW, what happened to the 40 new hospitals we were promised?

Always follow the money. Just who is making money out of this 'crisis'? - Big pharma, and that's why there is pressure being kept up to get jab after jab. Once the panic is over, the cash cow is dead. BTW, notice there's little flu and pneumonia around again this year? Can't have them muddying the covid figures, can we?

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Half of colds will be Covid-19, say UK researchers

Symptoms for the common cold and Covid-19 may look similar, but UK researchers have warned that half of the people who experience a sore throat, runny nose or headache may actually have Covid.

The Zoe Covid study team has been tracking the pandemic using feedback from the general public.

According to BBC, the researchers described an "explosion" of Covid cases over the last week, driven primarily by the Omicron variant.

Lead scientist Professor Tim Spector advised people to take a Covid test if they have cold-like symptoms.

"For most people, an Omicron positive case will feel much more like the common cold, starting with a sore throat, runny nose and a headache. You only need to ask a friend who has recently tested positive to find this out," he was quoted as saying.

Source: https://www.khaleejtimes.com/coronavirus/half-of-colds-will-be-covid-19-say-uk-researchers

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‘Dodgy data’ used in push for tighter Covid restrictions

Health chief accused of disseminating misleading statistics on hospitalisations that overstated the risk from omicron

One of Britain’s most senior health advisers has been accused of disseminating “dodgy data” that inflated the potential risk of omicron.

Dr Jenny Harries, the chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency, is understood to have been the source of a contested claim by Sajid Javid, the Health Secretary, that there is typically a 17-day lag between patients becoming infected and requiring hospitalisation.

However, independent experts pointed to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data, which suggested an average delay of nine or 10 days.

The claim by Mr Javid was seen as an attempt to strengthen the case for urgent new Covid-19 restrictions, on the basis that the country could be on the brink of a major spike in hospitalisations due to omicron.

Dr Harries has claimed that omicron was “probably the most significant threat we’ve had since the start of the pandemic”.

Health and scientific advisers have been pushing for lockdown measures and Boris Johnson will have to urgently decide whether or not to impose new restrictions before the New Year.

However, government sources have suggested that is now unlikely, based on the latest data and a wall of opposition from Conservative backbenchers and ministers.

The latest UKHSA data show that people infected with the variant were between 50 and 70 per cent less likely to be admitted to hospital than with delta. Daily meetings of the Cabinet’s Covid Operations committee will resume on Monday.

At the time of Mr Javid’s claim last weekend, despite soaring cases, only 85 people were in hospital with confirmed omicron, a figure that has since risen to 366.

Simon Briscoe, a former Treasury statistician, said that the 17-day figure appeared to be either a “deliberate statistical sleight of hand designed to deceive, or incompetence”.

If deliberate, he added, it seemed that officials were “in effect trying to buy time, as officials realise that data of rising hospitalisations is needed to justify lockdown”.

Lack of support for future Covid curbs

Mark Harper, the chairman of the Covid Recovery Group, said: “Covid restrictions damage people’s lives, livelihoods and mental wellbeing. So it’s really important that the debate about them is based on solid data.

“Serious questions need to be asked if senior health advisers are furnishing ministers with misleading figures, and failing to correct them at the earliest opportunity.

“Ministers also have a responsibility to ask detailed questions to ensure they aren’t using dodgy data. We can do better than this.”

A new analysis by the Legatum Institute think tank suggested that the Covid-19 lockdowns pushed 900,000 people into poverty and that further measures would jeopardise the recovery from the earlier restrictions.

Writing in The Telegraph, Baroness Stroud of Fulham, the think tank’s chief executive, also warned of a knock-on effect caused by hints of potential further measures.

Amid a projected improvement in poverty levels, “renewed restrictions and constant hints of tougher measures after Christmas means that we are putting these poverty gains at risk”, she said.

The Telegraph understands that Gareth Lyon, the chairman of the Aldershot and North Hampshire Conservative Association – whose MP is Leo Docherty, a defence minister – has resigned over the introduction of Plan B measures.

“What we’re doing is the precise opposite of Conservatism,” Mr Lyon said. “There are a great many of us in the voluntary party who are finding the leadership's instinctive big government approach to everything impossible to support.

“If yet more restrictions come in after Christmas, I know that many others will find it difficult to reconcile their views and principles with the party’s direction.”

Meanwhile, the Archbishop of Westminster, Cardinal Vincent Nichols, urged the Government not to close churches as part of any new restrictions, saying “people can make good judgments themselves”.

Dr Harries conveyed the 17-day figure to Mr Javid in a telephone call last week, during a conversation about the likely lag between infection and hospitalisation. It is understood to have been presented as an estimate, based largely on Covid-19 studies published last year and in early 2021, before the emergence of omicron.

In a subsequent article last week, published by The Telegraph, in which he appeared to lay the groundwork for more restrictions, Mr Javid stated: “Sadly, seven people have died with omicron and 85 people are in hospital with confirmed omicron, but there are likely to be a lot more.

“And we know that the typical time between infection and hospitalisation is 17 days, so today’s hospital numbers reflect infections that took place more than two weeks ago when omicron was here in much smaller numbers and represented fewer than one per cent of infections.”

The figure caused bemusement among some analysts and clinicians. It now transpires that it was a “generous” estimate provided by Dr Harries and rooted in studies that all pre-dated omicron.

Officials at UKHSA, which was formerly Public Health England, now believe that the gap between infections and hospitalisations is about 12 days.

Mr Briscoe said that ONS data suggested a lag of between one and two weeks. The ONS said in June, before the emergence of omicron, that the average time between Covid-19 infection and the onset of symptoms was five to six days, while the median delay between symptom onset and hospital admission varied between one and seven days.

Dr Harries has previously come under fire for attempting to justify the decision to halt routine testing in March 2020 by claiming that it was “not an appropriate intervention”.

Writing on his blog last week, Mr Briscoe added: “The difference of a week in the lag between infection and hospitalisation is important because if you believe the ONS numbers, you would already expect hospitalisations to be picking up rather more sharply than they are.

“Hospitalisations will need to be above (probably well above) the averages of recent months to justify lockdown.”

On Christmas Eve, Dr Harries said: “I think there’s a glimmer of Christmas hope in the findings that we published, but it definitely isn’t yet at the point where we could downgrade that serious threat.”

Scientific advisers have warned that even a small proportion of hospitalisations could overwhelm the health service if omicron infection rates are as high as feared.

A UKHSA spokesman said: “Individual responses to infection with Covid-19 vary widely according to a range of factors including age and health, and we continue to monitor the potential impact of the omicron variant as more data becomes available. Wider data on Covid-19 clearly indicates that there can be a substantial lag between infection and hospitalisation.”

Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/25/dodgy-data-used-push-tighter-covid-restrictions/

Harries is a bl**dy disgrace and should be fired.

The fact that The Telegraph is now questioning things is (IMO) an indication that the tide is finally beginning to turn.

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‘Dodgy data’ used in push for tighter Covid restrictions



One of Britain’s most senior health advisers has been accused of disseminating “dodgy data” that inflated the potential risk of omicron.

Dr Jenny Harries, the chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency, is understood to have been the source of a contested claim by Sajid Javid, the Health Secretary, that there is typically a 17-day lag between patients becoming infected and requiring hospitalisation.

However, independent experts pointed to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data, which suggested an average delay of nine or 10 days.

The claim by Mr Javid was seen as an attempt to strengthen the case for urgent new Covid-19 restrictions, on the basis that the country could be on the brink of a major spike in hospitalisations due to omicron.

Dr Harries has claimed that omicron was “probably the most significant threat we’ve had since the start of the pandemic”.

Health and scientific advisers have been pushing for lockdown measures and Boris Johnson will have to urgently decide whether or not to impose new restrictions before the New Year.

However, government sources have suggested that is now unlikely, based on the latest data and a wall of opposition from Conservative backbenchers and ministers.

The latest UKHSA data show that people infected with the variant were between 50 and 70 per cent less likely to be admitted to hospital than with delta. Daily meetings of the Cabinet’s Covid Operations committee will resume on Monday.

At the time of Mr Javid’s claim last weekend, despite soaring cases, only 85 people were in hospital with confirmed omicron, a figure that has since risen to 366.

Simon Briscoe, a former Treasury statistician, said that the 17-day figure appeared to be either a “deliberate statistical sleight of hand designed to deceive, or incompetence”.

If deliberate, he added, it seemed that officials were “in effect trying to buy time, as officials realise that data of rising hospitalisations is needed to justify lockdown”.

Dr Harries conveyed the 17-day figure to Mr Javid in a telephone call last week, during a conversation about the likely lag between infection and hospitalisation. It is understood to have been presented as an estimate, based largely on Covid-19 studies published last year and in early 2021, before the emergence of omicron.