Sunak announces General Election on July 4th...

PM announces date with Tories trailing Labour by 20 points in polls



Rishi Sunak has called a surprise early election for 4 July in a contest that will see Keir Starmer try to take power for Labour after 14 years of Conservative-led government.

The prime minister announced the election would be in the early summer in a high-risk move for the Conservative party as it trails 20 points behind Labour in the polls.

Sunak finally decided to name the date after claiming inflation was back under control and the economy was improving.

“I hope that my work since I became prime minister shows that we have a plan and are prepared to take bold action necessary for our country to flourish,” he said.

“Now I’ve stuck with that plan and always been honest with you about what is needed even when that’s been difficult.”

The prime minister added: “I cannot and will not claim that we have got everything right. No government could, but I am proud of what we have achieved together, the bold actions we have taken. I’m confident about what we can do in the future.”

However, Starmer is widely expected to become the next prime minister after transforming his party since its historic election defeat almost five years ago.

Sunak made his announcement in heavy rain outside No 10 Downing Street, as the New Labour anthem, D:ream’s Things Can Only Get Better, was blasted out on the street outside.

It followed a day of febrile speculation in Westminster, triggered by rare good economic news for the government and an unusually timed cabinet meeting, with senior ministers changing their plans to attend.

The prime minister, who has long said his “working assumption” was that the election would be held in the second half of the year, was previously thought likely to wait until the autumn and a further tax-cutting budget before holding a contest when so far behind.

However, government insiders suggested Sunak had been convinced that with the economic backdrop unlikely to improve significantly before the autumn, and questions over the delivery of his Rwanda deportation scheme, he would be better off going now.

The “wash-up”, when the government finalises non-contentious bits of legislation, is expected to take place next week before parliament is dissolved.

Before the announcement, a spokesperson for Starmer said: “We are fully ready to go whenever the prime minister calls an election.

“We have a fully organised and operational campaign ready to go. And we think the country is crying out for a general election so I would urge the prime minister to get on with it.”

Best picture ever. Looks like the drip he is. Sadly, Starmer is going to romp home and he will continue the managed decline of the UK. I'm glad I'm on the way out!

Election campaign to derail multibillion NatWest retail offer



Plans for a multibillion pound mass market sale of the government’s stake in NatWest Group have been derailed by Rishi Sunak’s decision to call a summer general election.

Sky News can reveal that a proposed retail offer of shares in the taxpayer-backed bank will be scuppered by the timing of the poll.

The Treasury has been preparing for months for a retail offering, with several billion pounds-worth of NatWest shares to be offloaded at a discount to the prevailing market price.

Under the government's plans, it would have taken place alongside an institutional placing of shares, with taxpayers' stake to be reduced to as little as 10% after the combined sale.

Several sources confirmed while the prime minister addressed the country from Downing Street that the NatWest retail offer was "now in the deep freeze".

Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, announced in last year's autumn statement that he would explore a mass-market share sale "to create a new generation of retail investors".

Since that point, further buybacks by the bank and stock sales by the government have reduced the taxpayer's stake to around 28% - worth about £7bn at NatWest's current valuation.

A retail offer could yet be revived after the general election, with Labour not ruling out support for the idea in recent months.

However, the delay induced by the general election is likely to postpone the timing of the government's full privatisation of NatWest, 16 years after it was rescued from the brink of collapse with £45.5bn of public money.

Shares in NatWest have risen by more than 20% over the last year despite the turbulence surrounding the debanking row involving Nigel Farage, the former UKIP leader.

Mr Farage, who has threatened to launch legal action against the bank, recently declared his fight with the lender "far from over".

The government's stake in NatWest has been steadily reduced during the last eight years from almost 85%.

NatWest, which changed its name from Royal Bank of Scotland Group in an attempt to distance itself from its hubristic overexpansion, was rescued from outright collapse by an emergency bailout that Fred Goodwin, its then boss, likened to "a drive-by shooting".

NatWest declined to comment.

What exactly was it that Sunak was told that forced him to pull the trigger on the election and why is no one in the media asking that question?

I'm guessing it wasn't good news, for the Tories at least?

Was he told that Reform UK were likely to take a hundred Tory seats if he waited any longer or that the Bank Rate was more likely to go up than down? Or was it something even worse?

Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom to stand down at general election



Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom have joined the now record-breaking exodus of Conservative MPs from the Commons, with the former saying it was time for a “new generation” to lead the party.

Gove’s announcement in a letter tweeted on Friday evening had been anticipated by some given the strong Liberal Democrat challenge he faces in his Surrey Heath constituency, but adds to the sense of Tories fleeing in the face of a likely general election loss.

Leadsom released her own letter shortly after, writing to Sunak: “After careful reflection, I have decided not to stand as a candidate in the forthcoming election.”

It puts the total number of sitting Tories saying they will not stand again at 78, beating the previous record of 72 from 1997.

An MP since 2005, Gove has been central to Tory fortunes ever since. The levelling up secretary had previously served as education secretary, justice secretary, environment secretary and chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

In his letter, Gove wrote that he knew “the toll office can take, as do those closest to me … No one in politics is a conscript. We are volunteers who willingly choose our fate. And the chance to serve is wonderful. But there comes a moment when you know that it is time to leave. That a new generation should lead.

Leadsom reached the final two of the 2016 Conservative leadership contest to replace David Cameron, but withdrew, putting Theresa May in No 10.

Among her government posts have been environment secretary, business secretary and Commons leader. She returned to government as a health minister last year, leading on Sunak’s plan to phase out tobacco sales – which has been dropped with the sudden election.

Rishi Sunak’s sudden announcement of a 4 July election had already prompted a renewed rush of Conservatives saying they would step down. The total had hit 70 by Wednesday evening.

Earlier on Friday, three more MPs said they were going, among them the former cabinet ministers John Redwood and Greg Clark, both of whom represent home counties seats where the Liberal Democrats could beat the Tories.

The Conservatives also symbolically handed back the party whip to the former health secretary Matt Hancock and Bob Stewart – both of whom had already announced they were standing down – just before parliament’s prorogation on Friday.

Also departing is Craig Mackinlay, who returned to the Commons only this week after nearly dying from sepsis and having his hands and feet amputated. The South Thanet MP said he had hoped to phase his return and could not commit to a campaign.

Sunak says he will bring back National Service if Tories win general election



Rishi Sunak has said he will introduce a new form of mandatory National Service for young people if the Conservatives win the general election.

In the first new policy announcement of the campaign, the prime minister has unveiled a plan that would see 18-year-olds given the choice of a full-time military placement for 12 months or a scheme to volunteer for one weekend a month for a year.

The placement would be selective - with tests used to decide who is eligible - and involve working with the armed forces or in cyber defence.

The voluntary option would see young people spending 25 days with organisations such as the police, the fire service, the NHS, or charities that work with older isolated people.

Mr Sunak said the new model would provide "life-changing opportunities for young people" and allow them to learn "real world skills".

Writing in the Mail on Sunday, the PM said: "To those who complain that making it mandatory is unreasonable, I say: citizenship brings with it obligations as well as rights. Being British is about more than just the queue you join at passport control."

The Tory party has also suggested National Service would cut crime, saying research shows volunteering can increase social responsibility.

The specifics of the plan would be established through a new Royal Commission - a type of advisory committee set up to investigate significant issues.

Conservative sources said that the commission would look at possible non-criminal sanctions for any teenagers who refused to take part in National Service.

Details such as exemptions from the scheme would also be established through this body.

The Conservatives estimate the programme would cost £2.5bn a year by 2029/30 funded with cash previously used for the UK Shared Prosperity Fund and by cracking down on tax avoidance and evasion.

Responding, a Labour Party spokesperson said the announcement was "desperate" adding: "This is not a plan - it's a review which could cost billions and is only needed because the Tories hollowed out the Armed Forces to their smallest size since Napoleon."

Pollsters say the Tories are heading for "electoral extinction" with Reform UK also rising up the ranks



Two polls published today spell bad news for Rishi Sunak, with one showing a drop of four points and the other that his party is on course to pick up just 72 seats.

A poll by Savanta for The Sunday Telegraph showed the Tories down four points to just 21% of the vote - the lowest by that pollster since the dying days of Theresa May's premiership in early 2019.

In a boost for Nigel Farage, the poll showed Reform UK up three points with 13% of the vote.

A separate Survation poll for Best for Britain, published by The Times, predicted the Tories would win just 72 seats in the next parliament, compared with 456 for Labour.

The result would give Labour a majority of 262 seats - far surpassing the landslide Labour achieved by Sir Tony Blair in 1997 - while the Liberal Democrats would pick up 56 seats, Reform seven and the Greens one seat.

The Savanta poll, which was carried out from 12-14 June and involved 2,045 adults aged 18 and over, also showed Labour up two points on 46% of the vote.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said the poll pointed to "nothing short of electoral extinction for the Conservative Party".

"The hopes of Conservative candidates are being shot to pieces by poll after poll showing the Conservative Party in increasingly dire straits - and we're only halfway through the campaign," he said.

"There's a real sense that things could still get worse for the Conservatives, and with postal votes about to drop through millions of letterboxes, time is already close to running out for Rishi Sunak."

The Survation results would mean that the Tories' vote share would have halved from 44% in 2019 to just 24%, while Labour would have increased theirs from 32% to 40%.

Speaking to journalists at the G7 summit in Italy yesterday, the prime minister said: "We are only halfway through this election, so I'm still fighting very hard for every vote."

Fighting to win them or fighting to lose them?

Tories in election retreat as resources diverted to defend ministers’ seats



The Conservatives are rerouting resources to defend at least three seats held by cabinet ministers with majorities of more than 20,000 as the party retreats to safer ground.

Tory activists and candidates in nearby areas have been diverted to campaign for James Cleverly, the home secretary, Oliver Dowden, the deputy prime minister, and Steve Barclay, the environment secretary.

Cleverly held his Braintree constituency by 24,673 votes in 2019, but some senior Tories believe the Essex seat, which elected Labour MPs in 1997 and 2001, could be vulnerable.

Barclay held his North East Cambridgeshire seat by 29,993 votes in 2019 and Dowden held Hertsmere in Hertfordshire by 21,313. Neither constituency has ever returned a Labour MP before.

All three seats are in the southern Tory heartlands, which Labour is heavily targeting at this election. They have been altered by the boundary review, but still have Conservative majorities of more than 20,000, according to 2019 modelled results for new boundaries.

A Conservative party spokesperson said: “The Conservatives are campaigning to win as many seats as possible. It is common practice for all political parties to keep their campaigns under review.”

One Tory activist said Cleverly had angered local grassroots Conservatives by telling them he was too busy to campaign. “James has told us he’s too busy in the Home Office to come out and canvass, so now we’re having to bus people in from nearby constituencies. It shows the contempt members are held in that people like him don’t see it as their job to do the hard yards during what is a difficult election,” the activist said.

Some Conservative candidates in seats with majorities of less than 10,000 have been asked whether they are prepared to give up on their local battle to help defend nearby constituencies that the party has a better chance of holding on to.

Tories to win just 64 seats, latest poll predicts



The Conservatives will win just 64 seats at the general election, a new MRP poll has predicted.

The survey of 34,558 voters by Survation gave Labour a majority of 159, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party predicted to win 484 seats – more than Sir Tony Blair’s 418 in the 1997 landslide.

The Tories were forecast to only narrowly become Britain’s official opposition with 64 MPs – just three more than the Liberal Democrats on 61.

Survation also predicted that Reform UK MPs would be returned in just seven seats despite the party winning more votes nationwide than any other except Labour and the Conservatives.

Meanwhile, a poll from Redfield and Wilton Strategies gave Sir Keir Starmer’s party a 19-point lead over the Tories, down four from last week.

Support for Reform fell by two points to 16 per cent after racism scandals around some of the party’s candidates.

The findings came as the Conservatives ramped up warnings about what a Sir Keir Starmer “super-majority” would mean in a bid to minimise the size of Labour’s expected landslide victory.

The poll of 20,000 voters, conducted between June 28 and July 2, put Labour on 41 per cent, down one point from last week. The Tory share increased by three points, from 19 per cent to 22.

The findings suggest Rishi Sunak’s warnings about the risks of a Labour “super-majority” could be bearing fruit. He has urged voters to “never surrender” to Sir Keir’s policies on tax, immigration and benefits.

Reform, meanwhile, suffered its first decline in support since Nigel Farage took over as leader earlier this month.