Britons will live up to four years longer than official estimates suggest, a major study has found.
Traditional forecasts have underestimated advances in medicine and nutrition which have dramatically improved life spans, say researchers at Imperial College London.
They predict that life expectancy nationally will increase for men from 79.5 years for those born today to 85.7 for those born in 2030, and for women from 83.3 to 87.6. The figures are in contrast to those released by the Office of National Statistics which suggest longevity will improve by just 2.4 years for men in that period and by one year for women.
While it is good news for individuals, the authors warn that the Government has underestimated the true cost of health, social care and pensions for an ever-ageing population.
“The bigger gains in life expectancy we predict will mean pensions will have larger payouts, and health and social services will have to serve an older population than currently planned,” said Professor Majid Ezzati from the school of public health at Imperial College London, who led the study.
“The discrepancies found between our estimates and earlier figures are likely to be because previous estimates have extrapolated from past trends in death rates, an approach that may underestimate gains in life expectancy. Our methods better reflect how longevity is changing than those currently used, and our forecasts are more accurate.”
The numbers of those aged 85 and above was already predicted to double by 2030, but the new research finds the figures are likely to exceed even those estimates.
Last year George Osborne, the Chancellor, announced that increases in life expectancy would automatically trigger a rise in the state pension age, which is likely to reach 70 within two generations.
It is currently 65 for men, and is rising from 60 for women to come into line with men at 66 by 2020. However those in their late twenties today are likely to have to work until their 70th birthday to help defuse the pensions time-bomb. Experts said it was wrong to think that an older population implied more social and health care costs.
A spokesman for the Office for National Statistics defended its own projections and said that it was notoriously difficult to predict ageing trends accurately.
Governments were warned decades ago that this was going to happen but took no action until it was too late and now my age group is bearing the cost.
