COVENTRY MESSAGE BOARD

YouGov survey finds Nigel Farage’s party is at 17 per cent, with the Conservatives at 19 per cent



Reform UK is polling just two points behind the Tories in the wake of Nigel Farage’s announcement that he will stand as an MP.

A YouGov survey found that Mr Farage’s party is at 17 per cent, with the Conservatives at 19 per cent.

The polling company has changed its methodology this week and, under its old system, the Tories and Reform would have been neck and neck on 18 per cent.

The survey of around 2,000 people will cause alarm in Conservative headquarters, as it points towards a Tory wipeout on July 4. With Labour on 40 per cent, it gives Sir Keir Starmer a 21-point lead over the Tories – enough for a huge majority in the Commons.

The poll, carried out on Monday and Tuesday, is the first to take into account the effect of Mr Farage’s announcement that he would be standing as a candidate in Clacton, Essex. He made the announcement at 4pm on Monday and also took over from Richard Tice as the Reform leader.

It put the Liberal Democrats on 10 per cent and the Greens on seven per cent.

Launching his campaign, Mr Farage said he expected to see Reform UK and the Tories drawing level in the polls by next week. In response to the new poll, he tweeted: “We’re just getting started.”

One angry MP on the Right of the Tory party said: “The Tory wets have caused this disaster, and my assessment of their competence is that they don’t really have any. They’re delusional.”

The poll gave Reform UK its highest figure for voting intention. Its previous highest was 16 per cent in March.

It also put Reform ahead of Labour among the over-65s (26 per cent to 22 per cent), although it is still behind the Tories, on 30 per cent. Reform has also overtaken the Tories in the north of England, at 21 per cent to 16 per cent.

Another Tory source said: “There was always a risk that this was going to happen. If this poll is correct, the Tories face a wipeout. And had Rishi governed as a Conservative, he would not be the captain of a sinking ship.”

Previous polling had suggested that Mr Farage would win the Clacton seat if he stood. In a YouGov poll before his announcement, Reform was on 15 per cent and the Conservatives were on 21 per cent.

However, the results are not directly comparable because of the changes to YouGov’s methodology on the way it treats “don’t knows”, tactical voting and turnout.

Speaking to The Spectator, Mr Farage said: “I don’t want to destroy the Tories – they’ve destroyed themselves already. It’s over, it’s done – there is no election. Labour is going to win.

“The positive thing that I’m trying to do is provide a voice of opposition to a Labour government; it looks to me like the Cabinet will be stuffed with incompetents. My aim is for the centre-Right of British politics to realign, and it can’t do that under the current Conservative Party. There needs to be a change.”

It came as Reform said it had gained 7,000 new members since Mr Farage’s announcement on Monday.