UK inflation rises to highest level in almost 30 years at 5.4%

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Re: UK inflation rises to highest level in almost 30 years at 5.4%

Postby dutchman » Tue Oct 25, 2022 3:53 pm

Price of budget food items in supermarket soar by 17% in year to September, ONS figures show

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The prices of staples such as pasta, tea and chips have surged in the UK in the past year, with cooking oil shooting up 65%, according to figures that highlight how poorer households are being hit disproportionately by the cost of living crisis.

The overall price of budget food items in supermarkets soared by 17% in the year to the end of September, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This was nearly double the 9% annual increase measured in the 12 months to April.

The figures highlight how the poorer families are bearing the brunt of the cost of living crisis, with prices for some budget grocery items soaring far ahead of the official 10.1% rate of inflation, which is at a 40-year high.

Pasta prices rose 60%, tea jumped 65% and chips went up 39%. There were also large price increases for other everyday low-cost items including milk, biscuits and bread.

The data, which measures the change in price of 30 everyday grocery items across seven supermarkets, also showed that some products such as orange juice and beef mince fell in price over the last year, while the prices of other products, such as yoghurt and pizza, remained stable.

“While the recent spike in inflation began with energy prices, today’s fresh insights using a new innovative data source show they are now filtering through to other important items, with the cheapest price of some staple food items rising by around two-thirds in the last year,” said the national statistician, Sir Ian Diamond.

He said data from the ONS near real-time survey of people showed that those who are disabled, from certain minority ethnic backgrounds and renters were among groups struggling the most with the increases.

“With rises in the cost of living at the forefront of many people’s minds, our new, almost real-time, data showing just how prices are changing and shining a light on how different groups are affected have never been more important,” Diamond said.

Earlier this year, the campaigner Jack Monroe called on the ONS to update the way it measures inflation to better understand what impact rising prices of basic goods have on the poorest households.

The ONS said that while not directly comparable, the rise in prices for the lowest-cost grocery items were similar to the 15% rise in the official measure of inflation for food and drink.

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Re: UK inflation rises to highest level in almost 30 years at 5.4%

Postby dutchman » Wed Nov 16, 2022 2:55 pm

UK inflation jumps to 11.1% on back of energy and food price rises

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The UK’s annual inflation rate hit a 41-year-high of 11.1% last month even as help was provided to households by the introduction of the government’s energy price guarantee.

Dearer food also contributed to a 2% jump in prices in October alone, helping to push the increase in the cost of living over the previous 12 months to a level not seen since October 1981.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said households were paying 90% more for gas, electricity and other fuels than they were a year earlier. Food price inflation rose from 14.6% to 16.4% – its highest level since 1977.

A rise in inflation had been anticipated by the City but the rise in the annual rate from 10.1% in September was markedly steeper than the 10.7% figure economists had forecast and was an unwelcome piece of news for Jeremy Hunt before Thursday’s autumn statement.

Responding to the figures, the chancellor, said: “We cannot have long-term, sustainable growth with high inflation. Tomorrow I will set out a plan to get debt falling, deliver stability, and drive down inflation while protecting the most vulnerable.”

The ONS said the introduction of the energy price guarantee for households, initially set for two years and since reduced to six months, limited the rise in electricity, gas and other fuels prices to 24.3% between September and October, with gas prices rising by 36.9% and electricity prices by 16.9%.

Without the guarantee, the rise would have been 75% and the overall annual inflation rate 13.8%, it added.

Inflation as measured by the consumer prices index stood at 4.2% in October 2021 but has moved steadily higher over the past 12 months. Core inflation, which strips out food, energy, tobacco and alcohol, remained unchanged at 6.5%.

The rise was anticipated by the Bank of England in its latest quarterly monetary policy report. Threadneedle Street said inflation would remain high and only fall back towards 10% in the first three months of 2023.

The ONS chief economist, Grant Fitzner, said: “Rising gas and electricity prices drove headline inflation to its highest level for over 40 years despite the energy price guarantee. Over the past year, gas prices have climbed nearly 130% while electricity has risen by about 66%.

“Increases across a range of food items also pushed up inflation. These were partially offset by motor fuels, where average petrol prices fell on the month, while the price for diesel rose taking the disparity in price between the two fuels to the highest on record.

“There was further evidence that costs facing businesses are rising more slowly, driven by crude oil and petroleum prices.”

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Re: UK inflation rises to highest level in almost 30 years at 5.4%

Postby dutchman » Wed Nov 30, 2022 6:04 pm

Coffee prices jump as food inflation hits new high

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Food prices rose at a record rate in the year to November, with meat, eggs, dairy and coffee climbing particularly sharply, new data shows.

Food inflation hit 12.4%, up from 11.6% in October, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC).

The rocketing cost of energy, animal feed and transport were behind the rise, it said.

BRC boss Helen Dickinson said winter looked "increasingly bleak" as price pressures continued "unabated".

The war in Ukraine and Covid have driven up the price of food, energy and fuel over the last year, affecting consumers and businesses alike.

The BRC's index showed that overall shop price annual inflation accelerated to 7.4% in November, up from 6.6% in October. This is the fastest rate since the index began in 2005.

It added that surging food prices were largely to blame, with fresh food prices up by 14.3%, compared with 13.3% in October.

Ms Dickinson said: "Winter looks increasingly bleak as pressures on prices continue unabated. Food prices have continued to soar, especially for meat, eggs and dairy, which have been hit by rocketing energy costs, and rising costs of animal feed and transport.

"Coffee prices also shot up on last month as high input costs filtered through to price tags," she added.

"Christmas gifting is also set to become more expensive than in previous years, with sports and recreation equipment seeing particularly high increases."

She said there were signs that cost pressures, and price rises, might start to ease next year, but "Christmas cheer will be dampened this year as households cut back on seasonal spending in order to prioritise the essentials".

Mike Watkins of NielsenIQ, which carried out the research, said that with prices still rising shoppers would be managing their Christmas budgets "more closely than at any time since the start of cost-of-living crisis"

In response, retailers were offering seasonal savings and price cuts in an effort to encourage shoppers to spend "as we move into December ", he added.

The most recent official figures showed food prices rising at their fastest rate for 45 years, with the cost of basics such as milk, cheese and eggs surging.

The Office for National Statistics found food price inflation in the year to October hit 16.2%, up from 14.5% in September.

:bbc_news:
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Re: UK inflation rises to highest level in almost 30 years at 5.4%

Postby dutchman » Wed Dec 07, 2022 11:43 pm

I don't know where they get "12.4%" from? My grocery bill has DOUBLED since lockdown and I only ever buy cheap own-brands and special offers. :roll:
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Re: UK inflation rises to highest level in almost 30 years at 5.4%

Postby rebbonk » Fri Dec 09, 2022 2:38 pm

I have worked with the ONS in the past and don't have the greatest faith in their abilities. However, cynical me wonders about this...

UK statistics office cancels producer price data release

Britain's Office for National Statistics said on Friday that it was cancelling the release of producer price inflation (PPI) data due on Dec. 14, after the discovery of further potential problems with the calculation of the series.

Last month the ONS had to correct the series due to an error in the weight given to diesel fuel, and on Friday the ONS said it had found a further issue related to food prices which it is now investigating.

"While this is being completed, we advise caution using the PPI datasets which may be subject to revision," it said.

Consumer price inflation data is not affected by the issue and will be released on schedule on Dec. 14, the day before the Bank of England is due to publish its December interest rate decision.

Producer price figures measure the selling prices of factory goods, known as output prices, and the costs they pay for materials and fuel - or input prices.

After the previous error in the weight given to diesel prices was corrected, headline annual output producer price inflation was revised up by an average of 1.8 percentage points from January to October 2022.

October's reading for producer output price inflation was revised up to 17.2% from 14.8%, while producer input price inflation - which was less affected by the error - was revised up to 19.5% from 19.2% in October.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-statistics-office-cancels-producer-price-data-release-2022-12-09/
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Re: UK inflation rises to highest level in almost 30 years at 5.4%

Postby dutchman » Wed Dec 14, 2022 10:11 pm

UK inflation slows to 10.7% in November

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UK inflation dipped to 10.7 per cent in November as an easing in the rise in petrol prices helped to lower the rate from a 41-year high of 11.1 per cent in October.

The figure was better than an expected 10.9 per cent and economists said the annual inflation rate had now probably passed its peak, with the sharp price rises of the past 18 months coming to an end.

The fall in the rate will not ease the cost of living crisis, however, because the level of prices has not dropped and the decline in inflation instead reflects some of the increases in prices a year earlier dropping out of the annual calculation.

Grant Fitzner, the Office for National Statistics chief economist, said: “Although still at historically high levels, annual inflation eased slightly in November.” He said downward momentum from smaller petrol price increases in November than a year earlier was offset by continued sharp rises in prices in restaurants, pubs and cafés.

Economists said the drop in core inflation — excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco — from 6.5 per cent in October to 6.3 per cent in November was a further positive sign that underlying price pressures were moderating.

Paul Dales, UK economist at Capital Economics, said: “Inflation eased in six of the 12 main categories, which provides some encouragement that it is not a one-off.” Most of the drop came in goods prices, where international supply chain pressures have eased, but services inflation held steady at 6.3 per cent, he added.

Kitty Ussher, chief economist at the Institute of Directors, said the figures gave hope that the UK “may soon be through the worst of the inflationary peak”.

With the inflation rate still in double digits and far above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target, few thought the figure would persuade the central bank to radically change course on raising interest rates.

Most economists expect a 0.5 percentage point increase on Thursday to 3.5 per cent as the BoE battles continued inflationary pressures. The meeting will give its Monetary Policy Committee the chance to signal whether it thinks that financial markets are still right to expect a peak interest rate of 4.5 per cent.

With prices still much higher than a year ago, there was no let up in the cost of living crisis facing many households.

Jack Leslie, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: “With price rises still massively outstripping pay rises — and Britain’s poorest families facing an inflation rate of over 12 per cent — families are still getting poorer month on month, and the cost of living crisis will continue to deepen in 2023.”

Frances O’Grady, TUC general secretary, called on ministers to do everything to get pay rising. “But instead, ministers are holding down pay across the public sector and refusing to negotiate with workers and their unions,” she said.

But chancellor Jeremy Hunt insisted it was right to hold the line on public sector pay and strikes.

In a statement on Wednesday morning he said: “I know it is tough for many right now, but it is vital that we take the tough decisions needed to tackle inflation — the number one enemy that makes everyone poorer. If we make the wrong choices now, high prices will persist and prolong the pain for millions”.

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Re: UK inflation rises to highest level in almost 30 years at 5.4%

Postby dutchman » Wed Dec 14, 2022 10:12 pm

It's because of the pay squeeze in the public sector, nothing else and as soon as the strikes are settled it will shoot back up again just as did after every previous public pay squeeze. :roll:
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Re: UK inflation rises to highest level in almost 30 years at 5.4%

Postby dutchman » Thu Dec 22, 2022 6:10 pm

Rising cost of basic food items leaving poorest people worst off, UK study finds

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More than half of all adults in Great Britain are buying less food and drink, with surging costs leaving the most vulnerable worst off.

People in the most deprived areas of England are the most likely to have cut back, with 61% saying they were buying less food when shopping last month, compared with 44% in the least deprived areas and 51% across Great Britain.

Almost a quarter of those questioned in the Food Standards Agency’s consumer insight tracker said they had skipped or reduced the size of a meal because they could not afford to buy supplies, as food and non-alcoholic drink prices rose by 16.5% in the year to November 2022, the highest increase since September 1977, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Staple foods such as bread and cereals, have seen the largest price increases, rising by 1.9% in the past month alone, contributing to an annual increase of 16.6%.

That meant inflation for low-income households, where staple foods make up a bigger share of the budget, stood at 10.5%, while the figure for high-income households was 9.1%.

Campaigners and analysts suggest that supermarkets have been raising prices in their cut-price ranges more quickly than more luxury items, piling pressure on those needing to save money.

The food writer and activist Jack Monroe was among the first to highlight how prices for cheaper food products had soared and their availability on supermarket shelves had fallen, contributing to rising hunger and poverty. Her campaign prompted Asda to introduce a more extensive budget range.

One study published this week, which tracked the cost of almost 19,000 items in UK supermarkets on a daily basis from July to December, found that items originally below 75p accelerated at the fastest rate – 16%. In contrast, items priced from £1.50 to £5 in July went up by just under 4%, and those above £5 fell by nearly 4%.

The items, checked by the price tracking agency Skuuudle, include many supermarket value-range products such as biscuits, chocolate, snacks, oils, rice, pasta, cans and packets of food.

A spokesperson for Skuuudle said the differences made “difficult reading for those on low incomes who are seeing the cost of many value items increase but who may not be able to benefit at all from the reduction in price of more expensive items. This change could well be driven by a reduced demand for more expensive items as more people turn to value products during the cost of living crisis.”

Concern that rising inflation is having a disproportionate impact on people in poorer households in the UK prompted government number-crunchers to provide a more detailed breakdown of the cost of living from this year.

In October, the ONS reported that the overall price of budget food items in supermarkets rose by 17% in the year to the end of September. This was nearly double the 9% annual increase measured in the 12 months to April.

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Re: UK inflation rises to highest level in almost 30 years at 5.4%

Postby rebbonk » Thu Dec 22, 2022 10:55 pm

dutchman wrote:
Rising cost of basic food items leaving poorest people worst off, UK study finds


Wow! No sh*t Sherlock! Just how much did this 'study' cost the tax-payer? :fuming:
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Re: UK inflation rises to highest level in almost 30 years at 5.4%

Postby dutchman » Wed Jan 04, 2023 4:47 pm

Inflation fear as food prices hit record highs

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Food prices rose by a record 13.3 per cent in December, increasing fears that inflation may not fall as sharply in 2023 as central bankers and economists hope.

The war in Ukraine led to sustained rises in the cost of animal feed, fertiliser and energy that squeezed supplies as demand rose, according to the latest monthly shop prices index published by the British Retail Consortium and NielsenIQ. It is the highest level recorded since the index began in 2005.

The biggest rise was in sugar, a result of delayed harvests worldwide and restrictions on export volumes from India. Lamb and pork prices also leapt over the festive period, with producers struggling to meet demand.

Alcoholic drinks suffered the biggest slowdown in price growth of all food and drink items monitored by the BRC as retailers tried to clear stocks with Christmas discounts.

A slowdown in non-food prices growth meant that overall shop price inflation was a fraction lower at 7.3 per cent, down from the record 7.4 per cent recorded in November.

The shop prices index is based on a basket of 500 essential goods, half of which are food items. It does not include utilities, fuel or any other categories that are included in calculating the consumer prices index, the headline measure of inflation. CPI is thought to have peaked at 11.1 per cent in October, when Britons received their winter energy bills. It fell further than expected to 10.7 per cent in November.

Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, said: “It was a challenging Christmas for many households across the UK. Not only did the cold snap force people to spend more on their energy bills, but also the price of many essential foods rose as reverberations from the war in Ukraine continued to keep high the cost of animal feed, fertiliser and energy.

“Non-food price rises eased as some retailers used discounting to shed excess stock built up during the disruptions to supply chains, meaning some customers were able to bag bargain gifts. The combined impact was that price increases overall plateaued, with the reduction in non-food inflation offsetting the higher food prices.”

Dickinson urged the government to support businesses with their energy bills past April, when the present scheme ends, to avoid further price rises for consumers.

In The Times’ annual survey of economists, published earlier this week, a majority of the 40 respondents expected headline inflation to at least halve over the next 12 months, with 55 per cent predicting a fall to between 3.5 per cent and 5 per cent by December 2023.

Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NielsenIQ, said that consumers were unlikely to feel better about their personal finances in the coming months as they dealt with delayed bills for Christmas spending and another jump in energy prices in spring.

“With shoppers having less money to spend on discretionary retail after paying for their essential groceries, there will be little to stimulate demand across the non-food channels,” he said.

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