Labour 'on course to win general election'

[dutchman]

Labour is on course to win the next general election, a poll of key marginal constituencies has shown.



The survey by Lord Ashcroft, the former Conservative Party vice-chairman, found a 6.5 per cent swing away from the Tories in 26 constituencies.

If the result is repeated at next year’s general election, it would mean Labour toppling 83 Conservative MPs.

It would leave Labour with a healthy majority in Parliament, potentially as large as 70 MPs.

The results will be welcome relief to Labour in the wake of the local elections results, which has seen Ed Miliband heavily criticised by senior figures in his own party.

The Ashcroft survey put Labour 12 points ahead across 26 battleground constituencies by 41 per cent to the Tories' 29 per cent.

Ukip was on 18 per cent and the Liberal Democrats just 8 per cent in the poll, which canvassed the opinions of 1,000 voters in each of the areas.

Nigel Farage’s party was in second place in four seats in the poll. Among them was Thurrock, the Essex town which is second on the Labour target list but where five Ukip gains saw Mr Miliband’s party lose control of the council on Thursday.

Others where Ukip are on course to be runners up were Dudley North, Great Grimsby and Walsall North - where 30 per cent of voters said they would vote for Mr Farage’s party.

The poll found that Labour is winning significant support from former Liberal Democrats - with the junior coalition party losing more than half its 2010 support in the seats - making up 13 per cent of the new Labour vote.

Douglas Alexander, the shadow foreign secretary masterminding the Labour campaign, said that the poll shows the “progress” being made by the party.

"Lord Ashcroft's poll confirms that we are making real progress in seats where we need to do well and that Labour can win next year's General Election,” he said.

"In the year ahead we will continue to show how we can make a difference to people's lives and engage directly with voters conversation by conversation, doorstep by doorstep.”

More than a fifth of voters said they wanted to see another coalition government.

However, 35 per cent said they wanted to see a Labour-only government after the next election, with just 25 per cent saying they want a Conservative administration.

Lord Ashcroft said: “There is still a year to go and as I have found in the Ashcroft national poll, only around half the electorate has definitely decided which party to vote for.

"It will be a battle, but remember this - if the Conservatives can switch one in six Labour voters, two-thirds of those who say they were willing to consider the party, this picture looks very different."

[rebbonk]

Of course this is all conjecture based on if things stay as they are.

There is a long way to go to the next election (unless the fool from No.10 calls it early) and much may change. I actually dread the thought of Cameron being returned to No.10 and the thought of Miliband is appalling. The people of the UK are very badly served by the political classes, in more ways than one. - There isn't a decent leader amongst the 3 traditional parties, and I still don't trust Farage.

[dutchman]

Ed Miliband admits: I shouldn't win the election



The odds are stacked against Labour winning the next election, Ed Miliband has said.

The party must “defy historical odds” to enter government just five years after being rejected by voters in 2010, Mr Miliband said.

Many voters feel that the party does not “speak for them,” Mr Miliband admitted.

He was speaking as he announced that all 18 to 21 year olds will only receive benefits if they are in training or further education. The move will cut £65 million from the welfare budget.

“I knew when I took this job on that we were going to have a tough fight. We were trying, and are trying, to defy the historical odds, which is that Governments that lose elections don’t tend to be one-term oppositions,” Mr Miliband said. “We are in a position to defy those odds.”

He added: “Millions of people feel that no political party speaks for them. That’s why I’m determined to turn around.”

But after a string of unforced errors, Mr Miliband’s personal ratings have slumped. Some 60 per cent of voters feel he is “not up to the job” of being Prime Minister.

Research by Ipsos Mori shows 49 per cent of voters think Mr Miliband should be replaced, including 43 per cent of Labour supporters.

Polling today of 17 Lib Dem-Tory marginals by Lord Ashcroft, the Tory donor, shows just one in five voters would rather Ed Miliband be Prime Minister than David Cameron.

Only 66 per cent of people planning to vote Labour think Mr Miliband would be a better leader.



Esther McVey, the Conservative welfare minister, said Ed Miliband was acting as the Conservatives’ “secret weapon” and the welfare announcement was “smoke and mirrors politics.”

“At this rate, when you’re giving us all the polling figures, I guess that’s true.

“Ed Miliband and the Labour party has voted against every welfare change that we have done. Whether it is the overall cap, if it’s the individual benefits cap – absolutely everything – so they didn’t want to do anything and then they come out with an announcement today which just confuses the system and saves a tiny amount of money.”

[rebbonk]

Many voters feel that the party does not “speak for them,” Mr Miliband admitted.

It hasn't done for many years, but their arrogance and stupidity stopped them and their paymasters seeing it. Too late now!

[dutchman]