European elections: Conservatives face poll humiliation...

[dutchman]

One in three Tory voters defect to Ukip



The Conservatives face being forced into third place in next month’s European Parliament elections, as up to half of Tory voters prepare to desert the party, an exclusive poll for The Telegraph has found.

Labour is currently in first place, with 30 per cent of the vote, while Ukip are second on 27 per cent. The Conservatives are a distant third on 22 per cent, according to the ICM survey of 2,000 adults.

The poll reveals how many of those who voted Conservative at the last general election will turn against the party next month - the first UK-wide poll since 2010.

One in three voters who backed the Tories four years ago - 37 per cent - now say that they plan to vote for Nigel Farage’s UK Independence Party in the European elections on May 22, among those who intend to turn-out.

Mr Farage’s support is greatest among the over 65s, with four in 10 of those backing the party falling into the pensioner age range.

In total, some 50 per cent of those who voted for David Cameron in 2010 will either support a rival party or abstain next month, according to the ICM survey.

The survey demonstrates the extent of the task facing the Tories in averting what many fear will be a “disastrous” result in the European elections.

Some MPs have privately warned that there could be “consequences” for the Prime Minister if the results prove to be as bad as this poll suggests. Even at their most optimistic, Conservative strategists concede that the poll is likely to be “very tough” for their party.

The ICM online survey found however, that even taking the radical step of changing leader would not significantly improve Conservatives fortunes.

Even Boris Johnson, regarded as the most popular politician in the county, would deter as many voters as he attracts if he replaced Mr Cameron as party leader.

There was some support for the idea of a deal between Ukip and the Conservatives at the next general election, a prospect which David Cameron has refused to contemplate, to the disappointment of some Tory MPs.

The poll also shows that the Liberal Democrats are facing another bruising night at next month’s European elections, despite Nick Clegg’s recent publicity in national broadcast debates with Mr Farage. They currently stand on just an 8 per cent share of the vote.