Ex-minister behind pension triple lock did not expect it to still exist in 2024The former pensions minister who oversaw the introduction of the state pension triple lock says he did not expect it to still be in place more than a decade later.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer committed to including the policy – which ensures pensions rise by the highest of average earnings, inflation or 2.5 per cent – in the party’s manifesto at the next general election.
The Conservative Party has also said it will maintain the policy, which means the triple lock will be in place until at least 2029 if parliament serves for five years.
Sir Steve Webb, who was pensions minister in the Coalition government when the policy was introduced in 2011, said: “Little did I think when we implemented the triple lock in 2010 that it would still be in force for the 2024-2029 parliament.”
He told
: “The circumstances of 2010 were pretty unique in terms of being the first full coalition government since the War. There was some scepticism that the Coalition would last five years, let alone that policies implemented in 2010 would last for decades.
“In any case, the triple lock is a policy which effectively has to be renewed each parliament – as no parliament can bind its successors,” he added.
The policy has led to some large increases in the state pension in recent years – including a 10.1 per cent increase in 2023 followed by an 8.5 per cent increase this year – and has come under scrutiny because of its highest cost.
Figures produced by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) suggest that by 2050, a reasonable estimate would be that the policy would add between £5bn and £45bn a year to state pension spending.
Sir Steve, who is now a consultant at LCP, said that he expected that legislation introduced by the coalition, which ensures the state pension goes up at least in line with average earnings, would last longer than the lock.
“I remember signing my name on that particular law. As a result, it would take a new piece of legislation to give pensioners less than to people in work by way of wage increases, and I always thought that would be the longer lasting policy,” he told i.
Before this policy was introduced, an earnings link was removed in 1979, and from a peak of 26 per cent that year, the value of the pension as a percentage of average full-time earnings fell to around 16 per cent between 2000 and 2010.