Sunak announces General Election on July 4th...

[dutchman]

Final YouGov MRP shows Labour on course for historic election victory



Our final MRP model ahead of the general election on Thursday shows a large Labour majority and a crushing defeat for the Conservative party.

Our central projections are vote shares of 22% for the Conservatives, 39% for Labour, 15% for Reform UK, 12% for the Liberal Democrats and 7% for the Greens.

These would result in 431 seats for Labour, 102 for the Conservatives, 72 for the Liberal Democrats, 2 for the Greens and 3 for Reform UK. The SNP have 18 seats in Scotland, and Plaid Cymru 3 in Wales.

Compared to our MRP model at the start of the election campaign the Conservatives have dropped three points and Labour have dropped four points, with the Liberal Democrats up one and Reform UK up five. The impact however has largely been to increase Labour and particularly the Liberal Democrats' seat numbers, suggesting much of that movement is anti-Conservative voters making tactical decisions on how best to remove them.

An MRP model, like any polling exercise, has a margin of error. We expect the Conservative shares of the vote to be between 19% and 25%, Labour to be between 34% and 43%, the Liberal Democrats between 9% and 16% and Reform between 11% and 20%.

This is especially the case at the seat level. Our prediction has 89 seats where the top two parties are within 5% percent of each other. That means a small movement in the overall share of the vote could equate to a large number of seats changing hands. This is particularly the case in Scotland, where the distribution of the SNP vote is relatively flat, and there are large number of seats that could easily change hands on just a small shift in the vote.

What does this mean in practice? Our range for the number of Conservative seats is between 78 and 129 seats, while our range for the Liberal Democrats is between 57 and 87. That means at one end of the realistic possibilities is that we wake up on Friday to find Ed Davey is Leader of the Opposition. At the other end of possibilities is that the Tories are in a secure second place. The most likely outcome is the Conservatives just over 100 seats, the Liberal Democrats on around 72.

What we can be absolutely confident upon is the winner. Labour are set to win, and set to win big. Even at the lowest end of our prediction Labour would have 391 seats and a majority of 132. At the top end of our prediction they would have 466 seats - a crushing majority of 282. Our range of possibilities goes from a large Labour majority to an exceptionally large Labour majority.

[dutchman]

Labour boost majorities in Coventry as Conservative vote collapses



Labour has stormed to election victory in Coventry amid a collapse in the Conservative vote. The party held onto all three of its parliamentary seats in the city today, 5 July.

MPs Taiwo Owatemi and Zarah Sultana were re-elected in Coventry North West and South and Mary Creagh will become the new MP for Coventry East. It is a stark difference to the results of the contest five years ago.

Back then, Ms Owatemi and Sultana's seats were among the most marginal in the UK. The pair got a similar amount of votes today but their Tory challengers saw their number of votes plummet to thousands less than they had before.

Both MPs now have majorities of over 10,000, while Ms Creagh has one of 11,000. Data also shows more people in Coventry are voting Reform.

Five years ago the group - then called the Brexit Party - gained some 2,000 votes in its best seat, Coventry East. This time it placed second in the area with around 500 more votes than the Tory challengers.

It is within 500 votes of catching up to the Conservatives in the other two Coventry constituencies. Across the city turnout was low, at just 49% in Coventry East and 56% for the other two constituencies.

Results were declared in the early hours of this morning. Labour have won a landslide majority and have won the General Election. At the time of writing they had won 396 seats while the Tories were on just 104.

[dutchman]

Nuneaton has its first ever female MP as Labour's Jodie Gosling takes seat from Conservatives



Jodie Gosling has written her name into the town's history books as she has become Nuneaton's first ever female MP. The mum of three snatched the town's seat in Parliament from Conservative Marcus Jones in the general election.

The Arley business woman took the seat with 15,216 votes while Mr Jones came in second, polling 11,737 votes. It was a moment she told CoventryLive may take a few days to sink in.

Hoarse from door knocking and canvassing over the last seven weeks, she said: "I knew it was going to be a possibility but I am overjoyed.

"My kids are over the moon, they gave me a big hug before I came out and wished me luck, they are absolutely over the moon. My oldest two know but my littlest is in bed, she wanted to come with me to the count.

"I can't wait to tell her."

Next stop now will be London and the corridors of power in Parliament and she takes with her the many issues raised with her on the doorstep. "Anti-social behaviour, low wages and the general lack of support and access to services, NHS, schools, pot holes. I always say that politics is about pot holes and dog poo because they are the things that impact people.

"Mainly, the lack of investment."

She said she stood in her first by-election in 2016 but said she did not ever think she would MP. "No, it was never part of the plan, but I do think we need more women and more life experience," she said. "I can't wait."

In her winner's acceptance speech, after the result was declared at 1.45am this morning (July 5), she thanked her supporters and family, before adding: "I want to try and give Nuneaton a better future."

[dutchman]

Nuneaton has its first ever female MP

There's no such thing as 'male' and 'female' according to Labour!

[dutchman]

Liz Truss and Rees-Mogg among big-name Tory losses



Former prime minister Liz Truss has lost her seat in Labour’s landslide election victory, as the Conservatives slump to a historic defeat.

She lost her South West Norfolk constituency to Labour by 630 votes, having previously held a huge 24,180 majority.

The ex-premier was among a clutch of senior Tories ejected from Parliament, in a result set to reshape the direction of the party.

These include Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, who was tipped as a future Tory leadership contender, and former cabinet minister Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Speaking after her defeat, Ms Truss said her party had not "delivered sufficiently" in areas such as "keeping taxes low” and reducing immigration.

Asked if she would stay on in Conservative politics, Ms Truss said “I’ve got a lot to think about” and asked people to “give me a bit of time".

The party lost a string of seats in southern England to the Liberal Democrats, who have won over 70 seats and are set for their best result in a century.

They have also seen their vote squeezed by Reform UK, which has won 14% of the vote and four seats, including Nigel Farage in Clacton.

Unlike the last election in 2019, when as the Brexit Party it stood aside in more than 300 Tory-held seats, Reform's decision to field candidates across Britain contributed to heavy Tory losses, particularly in Brexit-voting areas.

Twelve ministers attending cabinet have lost their seats, including Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Justice Secretary Alex Chalk and Technology Secretary Michelle Donelan.

Conceding the election after he was re-elected in Richmond and Northallerton, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called the results a "sobering verdict” for his party.

Speaking after losing her seat, Ms Mordaunt said her party had "taken a battering because it failed to honour the trust that people had placed in it".

Speaking earlier, before his defeat, Sir Jacob said it was “clearly a terrible night” for his party, that had come to take its “core vote for granted”.

“We need to win voters at every single election. If you take your base for granted... your voters will look to other parties.”

[dutchman]

Speaking after losing her seat, Ms Mordaunt said her party had "taken a battering because it failed to honour the trust that people had placed in it".

The time to speak-up was six weeks ago, not after the event!