"Coventry's population data used for housing plans is 'inconsistent', rules watchdog"

Plans for thousands of homes have been based upon the figures



Population estimates in Coventry which have formed the basis of plans for thousands of homes on green belt land are “inconsistent with local evidence”, a watchdog has ruled.

The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) has called on the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to investigate the scale of the issue and develop new population estimates.

ONS figures suggest a population growth of 31 per cent in Coventry between 2011 and 2031, which is used by the council as the benchmark for plans for 42,400 new homes.

Critics branded it an “anomaly” when set against an average regional growth of 14 per cent, arguing it does not factor in departing students, with the OSR report criticising the forecaster for ‘not adequately considering’ concerns.

While at national level the ONS forecasts are “fit for purpose” and backed by expert advice, the OSR has challenged them to review its methods at local levels and address a series of recommendations by July.

In a letter to the ONS, Ed Humpherson, Director General for Regulation, said: “The population estimates did appear to be inconsistent with, and potentially higher than, local evidence suggests in some smaller cities that had a large student population.

The ONS numbers have been used by the council to formulate its Local Plan, with swathes of green belt land removed for new homes in Keresley, Eastern Green and Kings Hill.

On the back of the new report, West Midlands Mayor Andy Street said: “Whilst it is great news that we finally have it in black and white that the ONS overestimated Coventry’s population growth, it has come too little too late for so much of the city’s precious greenbelt that has already been scythed off by developers for housing.

“Now, as a matter of urgency, Coventry City Council need to review their local plan in light of this admission, and stop any more unnecessary development on irreplaceable greenbelt land.”

Coventry Conservatives leader Cllr Gary Ridley has also backed calls for a Local Plan review, adding: “The one thing that is clear is that ONS have completely overestimated the population figures for Coventry. These erroneous figures are what the Local Plan was based on and they have put greenbelt in jeopardy when it doesn’t need to be.

“On the one hand it is vindication but that does not mean much to the people in places like Tamworth Road where the damage is already being done. We need to look at this now, we need a brownfield first approach and this justifies that.”

It should never have gotten this far. As Street rightly says, we can hardly reclaim land that has already been built on. Being very cynical, I'd like to know just who's made money out of this rather obvious 'error'.