Conservatives take six-point lead in Guardian/ICM poll

[dutchman]

A Guardian/ICM poll has produced a surprise Conservative lead of six points, taking David Cameron’s party to 39% with Labour on 33%.



While most recent polls show the race is tied or that Labour is in a slight lead, the telephone poll conducted between Friday and Sunday reports that the Conservatives have gained three points while Labour is down by two points in the last month.

ICM’s figures say that support for the Liberal Democrats is unchanged, on 8%. Ukip drops back two points to 7%, which leaves them tied for fourth place with the Green party, who are also on 7%, recovering by three points after having fallen to just 4% in March.

Compared with previous ICM polls, this survey suggests the Tories are at their highest standing with ICM since March 2012, just before the “omnishambles” budget.

If the polling proves accurate, it will mean Lynton Crosby’s strategy of focusing the Tory campaign narrowly on the twin themes of leadership and the economy is beginning to pay handsome dividends.

Taking in the ICM result, the Guardian’s updated average of recent polls puts the Tories on 33.7% and Labour on 33.6%. Support for the Lib Dems has edged up slightly, with Nick Clegg’s party on 8.2%. Ukip continues to gradually shed support and is now on 13.3% compared with 15% at the beginning of the year. The Greens are on 5.3%.

Discussing the result, Martin Boon, of ICM Unlimited, said: “There is inevitably random variation between different polls, which generally falls within a ‘margin of error’ of plus or minus three points. The movement we’ve recorded since the March survey is within that normal bound, albeit only just.”

Boon said the sample chosen looks “demographically sound”, but acknowledges there are signs in the raw data that this sample “could be a just touch too Tory”. In particular, there are more 2010 Conservative voters than ICM would ordinarily expect, and also more voters from the professional occupational grade.